Because "This Is the Year" Was Taken . . .

Should I take it as bad karma that there was a preexisting blog at thisistheyear.blogspot.com — and that it wasn't a Tribe fan writing there, either, but instead some anonymous schlub who swears to lose weight and quit smoking in 2002? (Note the lack of updates after January 4 — I suspect the blogger's commitment to self-improvement faded shortly thereafter.)

I will not read anything into that fact, because right now I am at the peak of my confidence. The Indians Will Win the World Series. This year. It will happen. And I am committing myself to the project of chronicling this event as it happens. In real time. Not for me to wait for a good result, then work backward, falsely reconstructing my state of mind as the season unfolded. The result would be a manufactured memory — and worse, the manufactured memory of someone who was cautious, who seemed unwilling to invest the time and effort to chronicle the events of the 2007 season unless he knew he would obtain a result worth writing about.

I leave the retroactive coverage to the newspapermen — the Terry Plutos and Bill Livingstons who will surely, come October, be scrambling to slap together lucrative retrospectives of the historic '07 campaign, for release just in time for the holidays. A real fan knows, in his heart, that his beloved Tribe will climb to championship heights. And he knows it in February.

February is, to be sure, the most appropriate month for a declaration like mine. It's a "buffer month" — long enough after the tragedy of the previous season that one's residual cynicism is at its lowest point, but still well before the dates in March when key players start succumbing to hamstring pulls and elbow tweaks. The team hasn't been routed in months. The memories of blown leads are distant. Reports of prospect play from the winter leagues have been encouraging — and if they weren't, they didn't make the papers.

Rational explanations begin to emerge for the catastrophes of the year before. Indians.com beat writer Anthony Castrovince reports, for example, that Jhonny Peralta had Lasik surgery during the offseason to correct his nearsightedness. A positive offseason development, this is, and one that provides a satisfactory explanation for the giant step back that Jhonny took last year at the plate and in the field. He simply couldn't see the ball to catch it or hit it. Now he can. Problem solved. Contrast this offseason report to the news after Peralta's breakout season in '05, when he grew two inches over the winter, causing his hitting and fielding mechanics to go out of whack. This is a positive development. Good news. Reason for hope.

Now is the time to believe, I say, and now is the time to get started with the exercise of chronicling the Cleveland Indians' 2007 championship season — seen through the eyes of this fan, processed in his long-suffering and suggestible consciousness, and served up by weblog into something approximating a real-time narrative.

Today is February 21, 2007, and Anthony Castrovince has given me reason to believe that Jhumpin' Jhonny Peralta is on the cusp of a bounceback year. The Man at One Time Favorably Compared to Derek Jeter will return to his 2005 form, validate the long-term contract he signed after that year, and settle in comfortably at shortstop for the first-place team in the American League Central. Do I foresee an All-Star appearance? I say that's unlikely. But my first bold prediction of the year, grounded in nothing but my own fervent hope, is that Peralta will post .285-27-95 numbers (that's batting average-HR-RBI, by the way, for all you slick young kids raised on OPS), and Jhonny will flash an unspectacular but effective and consistent glove at shortstop. Oh, and what the hell: Peralta will drive in the winning run in Game Six of the ALCS — off Mariano Rivera, Huston Street, or Francisco Rodriguez. Take your pick.

Such predictions are what mid-to-late February is made of. More to come as it happens.